The 98th Academy Awards are officially around the corner, and the vibe this year is a bit different than the usual Hollywood fanfare. With Conan O’Brien hosting, the show will likely trade the usual formal script for his brand of dry, industry-poking humor, and hopefully move much faster than the marathons of previous years (no thanks to Adrien Brody’s record-breaking speech last year). What makes this year different is that the movies audiences showed up for are the same ones critics are praising. It’s worth noting that the wall of “prestige” is starting to crumble, as genre movies and massive blockbusters are finally being treated like real art.
The biggest trend to look out for this year is what critics are calling the ‘Overdue Narrative.’ Every few years, the Academy realizes they’ve ignored a certain figure for way too long, and they decide to give them all of the trophies at once. This year, that person is filmmaker Paul Thomas Anderson. After over two decades of directing acclaimed films like There Will Be Blood, the Academy seems ready to reward him. At the same time, we’re seeing a massive shift in how the Academy views horror and sci-fi. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners didn’t just get a few technical nods; it grabbed sixteen nominations, a haul that rivals former-recordholder Titanic’s 14 nominations.
The Category-by-Category Breakdown
Best Picture: The top prize is essentially neck-and-neck between One Battle After Another and Sinners. If you’re looking at the stats, Sinners has the most nominations, which usually suggests a win. However, the Academy uses a “preferential ballot” for Best Picture, which means they reward the movie that most people can agree on, rather than the one that has the most hardcore fans. One Battle After Another’s broad emotional appeal makes it the safest bet, while Sinners may feel too experimental for older voters. (see Viren’s breakdown for more on this category)
Best Director: This is the category where Paul Thomas Anderson finally gets his flowers. He’s already won the Directors Guild award, which is historically the best indicator of who will win the Oscar. While Ryan Coogler did some incredible, innovative work on Sinners– essentially reinventing vampire movies for a new generation– the “he’s due” narrative for Anderson is just too strong to beat.
Best Actor: While Leonardo DiCaprio gives a massive performance in the Anderson epic, this is looking like Timothée Chalamet’s year. He trained for years to play a 1950s professional ping-pong player in Marty Supreme, and the Academy almost always rewards that kind of intense physical commitment. After winning Best Actor at the Golden Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards, he has all the momentum. He’s the clear favorite to win, and it’s hard to imagine anyone else taking the trophy home on Oscar night.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley has locked in her status as the actress to beat after her massive win for Leading Actress at the BAFTAs in February. As the first Irish actress to take home that trophy, she has a massive wave of international support behind her. While Rose Byrne is a formidable runner-up, having already won the Golden Globe and the Independent Spirit Award for her role in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, she still hasn’t been able to overtake Buckley. Byrne has plenty of respect for her comedy work, but Buckley’s performance in a biopic has given her a lead that seems impossible to break.
The Snubs and Surprises
As it does every year, the Oscars brought some shocks. The biggest surprise was the massive love for Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. Horror is a genre the Academy usually ignores, but this project brought in nine nominations, including Supporting Actor for Jacob Elordi as the Creature. It’s a huge win for the genre, but that success seemed to squeeze out some of the year’s best performances.
The most frustrating snub was Miles Caton for Sinners. Despite winning the Critics’ Choice Award and holding his own against Delroy Lindo, he was left out of the Supporting Actor race. Similarly, Jesse Plemons was overlooked for a Best Actor nod for Bugonia. While his co-star Emma Stone landed her seventh nomination, Plemons was the backbone of the performance, making a conspiracy theorist feel both horrifying and heartbreaking. Finally, a category mix-up likely cost Paul Mescal his place for Hamnet. Voters couldn’t decide if he was a lead or a supporting actor, and that confusion left his performance out in the cold.
Whether these predictions come true or we get a series of upsets, the 98th Oscars are going to be a massive night for all kinds of film fans. It’s rare to see a year where the movies are this diverse in terms of style and genre. We’ve got a vampire horror, a ping-pong biopic, and a Shakespearean drama all fighting for the same trophies. Whether the big winners match my picks or surprise us all, this year’s Oscars promise enough drama and unforgettable moments to keep us talking until the 99th ceremony is right around the corner.
